← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Rene Rohde, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 64% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.81 |
| Dresden win | 16% | 6.14 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Marvin Ducksch · Holstein Kiel |
| 55' | 🟨 | Niklas Kreuzer · Dresden |
| 69' | 🟨 | David Kinsombi · Holstein Kiel |
| 83' | ⚽ | Steven Lewerenz · Holstein Kiel |
| 88' | ⚽ | Kingsley Schindler · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 461.00 | 858.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1580.38 | 1461.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 45.36 | 17.93 |
| eye test v1 | 1.35 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.00 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.59 |
| league points | 29.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.23 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.19 | 25.21 |
| state index | 1.01 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |