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Heidenheim 1–0 Nurnberg

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Oct 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Schroder, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nurnberg win41%2.39
Heidenheim win33%2.98
Draw26%3.70

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'🟨Lukas Mühl · Nurnberg
42'🟨Sebastian Griesbeck · Heidenheim
61'🟨Marcel Titsch-Rivero · Heidenheim
67'⚽Robert Glatzel · Heidenheim
71'🟨Eduard Löwen · Nurnberg
90'🟨Nikola Dovedan · Heidenheim
90'🟨Maximilian Thiel · Heidenheim

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots14
5On target5
7Corners4
12Fouls13
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHeidenheimNurnberg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.39
box share (last 5)0.460.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days3711.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVoith-Arena
242.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.111.29
elo1391.891468.96
elo momentum (last 5)-39.0534.59
eye test v1-1.090.42
eye trend v1-0.16-0.25
first sub minute (last 10)56.8056.50
form points (last 5)2.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.401.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.77
keeper form v10.640.69
league points8.0022.00
league rank17.003.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet12.009.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.4075.60
possession avg (last 5)41.0047.00
rest days8.837.04
scorer concentration0.170.32
season ppg0.732.00
skill v1-1.67-0.30
sot against avg (last 5)6.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.305.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.605.20
state index-1.300.48
sterile dominance v1-0.80-0.60
threat rate (last 10)0.250.28
threat rate (last 3)0.200.28
threat rate (last 5)0.220.29
venue ppg (last 5)0.202.40