⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Bielefeld 1–3 Ingolstadt

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Fri, Oct 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Timo Gerach, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ingolstadt win50%1.94
Draw26%3.71
Bielefeld win23%4.19

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Marcel Gaus · Ingolstadt
11'⚽Thomas Pledl · Ingolstadt
13'🟨Marcel Gaus · Ingolstadt
13'🟥Marcel Gaus · Ingolstadt
14'🟨Sonny Kittel · Ingolstadt
26'🟥Brian Behrendt · Bielefeld
29'⚽Julian Börner · Bielefeld
45'⚽ (pen)Stefan Kutschke · Ingolstadt
68'🟨Manuel Prietl · Bielefeld
84'🟨Marvin Matip · Ingolstadt
85'⚽Sonny Kittel · Ingolstadt
86'🟨Stefan Ortega · Bielefeld
90'🟨Julian Börner · Bielefeld

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
16Shots12
2On target8
10Corners5
12Fouls6
3Yellow cards4
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBielefeldIngolstadt
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.31
box share (last 5)0.670.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days483.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSchüco-Arena
87.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.943.50
elo1441.031475.11
elo momentum (last 5)6.5212.22
eye test v1-0.230.28
eye trend v10.03-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)56.0057.20
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.32
keeper form v10.710.68
league points17.0014.00
league rank7.0011.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.8070.20
possession avg (last 5)52.0053.40
rest days6.237.00
scorer concentration0.290.38
season ppg1.551.27
skill v1-0.04-0.42
sot against avg (last 5)5.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.705.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.605.00
state index-0.240.13
sterile dominance v1-0.22-0.61
threat rate (last 10)0.270.33
threat rate (last 3)0.270.32
threat rate (last 5)0.270.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40