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Erzgebirge AUE 1–0 Regensburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sven Waschitzki, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Erzgebirge AUE win44%2.21
Regensburg win29%3.42
Draw27%3.57

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Dennis Kempe · Erzgebirge AUE
20'🟥Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE
27'🟨Asger Sørensen · Regensburg
41'🟨Nicolai Rapp · Erzgebirge AUE
45'🟨Christian Tiffert · Erzgebirge AUE
49'🟨Alexander Nandzik · Regensburg
59'⚽Mario Kvesić · Erzgebirge AUE
75'🟨Sargis Adamyan · Regensburg

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
5Shots15
4On target5
3Corners9
14Fouls20
3Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricErzgebirge AUERegensburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.21
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.19
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.18
box share (last 5)0.480.52
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days143.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion
113.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.363.43
elo1424.171451.03
elo momentum (last 5)-10.71-45.73
eye test v1-0.01-0.14
eye trend v1-0.480.30
first sub minute (last 10)63.9058.20
form points (last 5)6.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.45
keeper form v10.630.69
league points13.009.00
league rank13.0014.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.0010.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0070.40
possession avg (last 5)51.4052.00
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.330.27
season ppg1.300.90
skill v10.47-0.49
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.203.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.60
state index-0.48-0.84
sterile dominance v10.42-1.01
threat rate (last 10)0.240.32
threat rate (last 3)0.200.41
threat rate (last 5)0.220.35
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20