← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kempter, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 50% | 1.94 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.88 |
| Dresden win | 25% | 3.97 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Mikael Ishak · Nurnberg |
| 9' | 🟨 | Jannik Müller · Dresden |
| 31' | 🟨 | Thorsten Kirschbaum · Nurnberg |
| 54' | 🟨 | Cedric Teuchert · Nurnberg |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Peniel Mlapa · Dresden |
| 82' | ⚽ | Cedric Teuchert · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aias Aosman · Dresden |
| 90' | 🟨 | Florian Ballas · Dresden |
| 90' | 🟥 | Philip Heise · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 22 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 235.00 | 844.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1541.68 | 1467.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 44.14 | 18.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.76 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| league points | 22.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.71 | 25.03 |
| state index | 0.71 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |