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Nurnberg 2–1 Dresden

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kempter, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nurnberg win50%1.94
Draw25%3.88
Dresden win25%3.97

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Mikael Ishak · Nurnberg
9'🟨Jannik Müller · Dresden
31'🟨Thorsten Kirschbaum · Nurnberg
54'🟨Cedric Teuchert · Nurnberg
69'⚽ (pen)Peniel Mlapa · Dresden
82'⚽Cedric Teuchert · Nurnberg
90'🟨Aias Aosman · Dresden
90'🟨Florian Ballas · Dresden
90'🟥Philip Heise · Dresden

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots22
5On target2
4Corners9
11Fouls10
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNurnbergDresden
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.42
box share (last 5)0.630.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days235.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMax-Morlock-Stadion
844.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.252.04
elo1460.421469.23
elo momentum (last 5)54.6616.78
eye test v10.76-0.14
eye trend v10.00-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)55.6061.20
form points (last 5)12.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)3.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.780.97
keeper form v10.650.57
league points19.0013.00
league rank4.0012.00
matches since blank5.003.00
matches since clean sheet8.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8073.40
possession avg (last 5)47.6052.20
rest days5.718.02
scorer concentration0.300.23
season ppg1.901.30
skill v1-0.23-0.16
sot against avg (last 5)5.803.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.004.20
state index0.620.07
sterile dominance v1-0.660.29
threat rate (last 10)0.280.21
threat rate (last 3)0.300.19
threat rate (last 5)0.310.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.60