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Holstein Kiel 2–1 Bielefeld

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Reichel, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Holstein Kiel win63%1.54
Draw21%4.65
Bielefeld win16%6.21

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Dominic Peitz · Holstein Kiel
17'🟨Tom Weilandt · Holstein Kiel
28'🟨Fabian Klos · Bielefeld
34'🟨Nils Teixeira · Bielefeld
45'🟨Julian Börner · Bielefeld
60'🟨Dominick Drexler · Holstein Kiel
65'⚽Marvin Ducksch · Holstein Kiel
68'⚽Steven Lewerenz · Holstein Kiel
85'⚽ (og)Rafael Czichos · Bielefeld
90'🟨Steven Lewerenz · Holstein Kiel

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots11
4On target3
4Corners6
13Fouls15
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHolstein KielBielefeld
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.28
box share (last 5)0.610.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days446.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHolstein-Stadion
477.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.462.08
elo1555.171446.52
elo momentum (last 5)40.053.91
eye test v11.40-0.12
eye trend v10.29-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)66.7055.60
form points (last 5)12.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.260.97
keeper form v10.660.72
league points22.0017.00
league rank2.006.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6075.60
possession avg (last 5)55.2052.20
rest days5.987.00
scorer concentration0.350.29
season ppg2.201.70
skill v10.480.06
sot against avg (last 5)3.805.20
sot for avg (last 10)6.503.90
sot for avg (last 3)9.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)7.403.80
state index0.85-0.10
sterile dominance v1-0.47-0.19
threat rate (last 10)0.320.28
threat rate (last 3)0.400.29
threat rate (last 5)0.350.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.002.00