← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 44% | 2.21 |
| Heidenheim win | 29% | 3.37 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.62 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Marc Schnatterer · Heidenheim |
| 24' | 🟨 | Marvin Ducksch · Holstein Kiel |
| 26' | 🟨 | Kevin Kraus · Heidenheim |
| 37' | 🟨 | Nikola Dovedan · Heidenheim |
| 40' | ⚽ | Marvin Ducksch · Holstein Kiel |
| 42' | 🟥 | Mathias Wittek · Heidenheim |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Marvin Ducksch · Holstein Kiel |
| 48' | ⚽ | Marnon Busch · Heidenheim |
| 51' | 🟨 | Rafael Czichos · Holstein Kiel |
| 52' | ⚽ | Marc Schnatterer · Heidenheim |
| 53' | ⚽ | Dominick Drexler · Holstein Kiel |
| 58' | 🟨 | Dominic Peitz · Holstein Kiel |
| 75' | 🟨 | Arne Feick · Heidenheim |
| 81' | ⚽ | David Kinsombi · Holstein Kiel |
| 83' | ⚽ | Marvin Ducksch · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 28 |
| 4 | On target | 14 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Voith-Arena |
| coach days | 3697.00 | 440.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1434.61 | 1562.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.82 | 47.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 67.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 8.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.44 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.88 | 28.03 |
| state index | -0.73 | 1.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.34 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.40 |