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Greuther Furth 2–1 Erzgebirge AUE

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rene Rohde, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Greuther Furth win42%2.33
Draw30%3.30
Erzgebirge AUE win29%3.41

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨Fabian Kalig · Erzgebirge AUE
31'🟨Manuel Torres · Greuther Furth
39'🟨Jürgen Gjasula · Greuther Furth
40'⚽Khaled Narey · Greuther Furth
42'🟨Sebastian Hertner · Erzgebirge AUE
64'🟨Pascal Köpke · Erzgebirge AUE
74'🟨Levent Ayçiçek · Greuther Furth
78'⚽Albert Bunjaku · Erzgebirge AUE
80'🟨Nicolai Rapp · Erzgebirge AUE
87'⚽Daniel Steininger · Greuther Furth

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
17Shots8
4On target5
3Corners2
23Fouls15
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGreuther FurthErzgebirge AUE
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.42
box share (last 5)0.400.49
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days44.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
136.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.372.49
elo1357.941434.65
elo momentum (last 5)-19.7512.27
eye test v10.90-0.08
eye trend v10.11-0.23
first sub minute (last 10)53.7065.80
form points (last 5)4.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.99
keeper form v10.580.68
league points4.0013.00
league rank18.0011.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet13.001.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0078.80
possession avg (last 5)55.8049.80
rest days15.7915.02
scorer concentration0.330.36
season ppg0.441.44
skill v10.670.23
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.704.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.204.00
state index-1.07-0.13
sterile dominance v10.010.33
threat rate (last 10)0.270.24
threat rate (last 3)0.250.24
threat rate (last 5)0.300.21
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.40