← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benedikt Kempkes, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 44% | 2.22 |
| Regensburg win | 30% | 3.22 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Continental Arena |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 106.00 | 471.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 1.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1332.93 | 1574.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.66 | -3.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.56 | 66.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| league points | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.78 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.47 | 25.79 |
| state index | -0.38 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.10 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |