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Bochum 2–0 SV Sandhausen

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sat, Oct 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dietz, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum win42%2.33
SV Sandhausen win29%3.34
Draw29%3.37

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Lukas Hinterseer · Bochum
37'🟨Markus Karl · SV Sandhausen
38'🟨Leart Paqarada · SV Sandhausen
43'🟨Tim Kister · SV Sandhausen
44'🟨Robbie Kruse · Bochum
72'⚽Kevin Stöger · Bochum
77'🟨Patrick Fabian · Bochum

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots7
3On target1
4Corners6
11Fouls15
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBochumSV Sandhausen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.36
box share (last 5)0.560.62
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1048.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVonovia Ruhrstadion
470.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.201.51
elo1404.421495.06
elo momentum (last 5)-4.0620.32
eye test v1-0.33-0.19
eye trend v1-0.27-0.13
first sub minute (last 10)52.6054.00
form points (last 5)6.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.07
keeper form v10.730.77
league points10.0017.00
league rank13.005.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6069.20
possession avg (last 5)53.4049.40
rest days14.0012.98
scorer concentration0.380.42
season ppg1.111.89
skill v10.26-0.79
sot against avg (last 5)5.002.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.503.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.40
state index-0.520.30
sterile dominance v10.38-0.35
threat rate (last 10)0.270.23
threat rate (last 3)0.230.20
threat rate (last 5)0.220.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.60