⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

SV Sandhausen 2–0 Regensburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Sandhausen win49%1.99
Draw28%3.52
Regensburg win23%4.16

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

32'🟨Philipp Förster · SV Sandhausen
37'🟨Marc Lais · Regensburg
58'🟨Maximilian Jansen · SV Sandhausen
65'🟨Tim Kister · SV Sandhausen
67'⚽Lucas Höler · SV Sandhausen
70'🟨Asger Sørensen · Regensburg
75'🟨Tim Knipping · SV Sandhausen
84'🟨Andreas Geipl · Regensburg
84'⚽Lucas Höler · SV Sandhausen
86'🟨Asger Sørensen · Regensburg
86'🟥Asger Sørensen · Regensburg

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
9Shots19
2On target2
1Corners4
19Fouls18
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSV SandhausenRegensburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.22
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.19
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.19
box share (last 5)0.590.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days457.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHardtwaldstadion
92.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.65—
elo1482.811478.32
elo momentum (last 5)-4.83-14.41
eye test v1-0.02-0.24
eye trend v10.080.03
first sub minute (last 10)53.5058.88
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.06—
keeper form v10.75—
league points14.009.00
league rank7.0014.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.008.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.8069.60
possession avg (last 5)49.0052.20
rest days8.798.02
scorer concentration0.300.27
season ppg1.751.13
skill v1-0.54-0.55
sot against avg (last 5)3.205.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.60
state index-0.15-0.31
sterile dominance v1-0.33-0.88
threat rate (last 10)0.230.31
threat rate (last 3)0.240.33
threat rate (last 5)0.250.33
venue ppg (last 5)2.00—