← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Florian Badstubner, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim win | 40% | 2.44 |
| Dresden win | 33% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.56 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Manuel Konrad · Dresden |
| 26' | ⚽ | Niklas Kreuzer · Dresden |
| 29' | 🟨 | Marcel Titsch-Rivero · Heidenheim |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ben Halloran · Heidenheim |
| 49' | 🟨 | Kolja Pusch · Heidenheim |
| 53' | ⚽ | Peniel Mlapa · Dresden |
| 71' | 🟨 | Nikola Dovedan · Heidenheim |
| 90' | 🟨 | Haris Duljević · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 27 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Voith-Arena |
| coach days | 3683.00 | 823.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1452.33 | 1448.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.46 | -10.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.59 |
| league points | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.39 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.15 | 25.51 |
| state index | -0.54 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.26 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |