← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Cortus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 44% | 2.23 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.46 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 28% | 3.47 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 55' | ⚽ | Marcel Hartel · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 70' | ⚽ | Sebastian Polter · 1. FC Union Berlin |
| 73' | ⚽ | Sören Bertram · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 90' | 🟨 | Akaki Gogia · 1. FC Union Berlin |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| coach days | 121.00 | 456.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| venue | Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 1.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1465.90 | 1565.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.15 | -16.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | 0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| league points | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 26.65 | 25.71 |
| state index | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |