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Ingolstadt 3–0 Darmstadt

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Fri, Sep 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Timo Gerach, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ingolstadt win54%1.79
Draw25%3.92
Darmstadt win21%4.73

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'⚽ (pen)Stefan Kutschke · Ingolstadt
34'🟨Stefan Kutschke · Ingolstadt
37'🟨Immanuel Höhn · Darmstadt
39'🟨Thomas Pledl · Ingolstadt
44'🟨Sandro Sirigu · Darmstadt
53'🟨Marvin Mehlem · Darmstadt
60'⚽Sonny Kittel · Ingolstadt
79'⚽Thomas Pledl · Ingolstadt

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
21Shots5
5On target2
7Corners5
18Fouls15
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricIngolstadtDarmstadt
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.42
box share (last 5)0.640.61
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days59.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAudi Sportpark
1763.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.752.45
elo1446.451456.26
elo momentum (last 5)5.607.09
eye test v10.170.28
eye trend v1-0.25-0.26
first sub minute (last 10)58.9059.00
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.20
keeper form v10.700.63
league points7.0015.00
league rank16.004.00
matches since blank0.009.00
matches since clean sheet2.005.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.2073.40
possession avg (last 5)52.8051.20
rest days5.215.21
scorer concentration0.400.19
season ppg0.881.88
skill v1-0.65-0.22
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.605.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.605.00
state index-0.42-0.28
sterile dominance v1-0.93-0.17
threat rate (last 10)0.340.27
threat rate (last 3)0.340.25
threat rate (last 5)0.330.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.20