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Darmstadt 3–3 Dresden

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Sep 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sven Waschitzki, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Darmstadt win44%2.21
Dresden win29%3.39
Draw27%3.60

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'🟨Marvin Mehlem · Darmstadt
23'⚽Manuel Konrad · Dresden
30'⚽Tobias Kempe · Darmstadt
34'⚽Manuel Konrad · Dresden
45'🟨Niklas Kreuzer · Dresden
54'🟨Jannik Müller · Dresden
58'🟨Florian Ballas · Dresden
79'🟨Aytaç Sulu · Darmstadt
80'🟨Kevin Großkreutz · Darmstadt
80'⚽Manuel Konrad · Dresden
90'🟨Andreas Lambertz · Dresden
90'⚽Terrence Boyd · Darmstadt
90'⚽Tobias Kempe · Darmstadt

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
18Shots6
6On target4
10Corners6
17Fouls17
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDarmstadtDresden
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.33
box share (last 5)0.650.66
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1758.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadion am Böllenfalltor
816.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.762.25
elo1458.121452.73
elo momentum (last 5)26.10-37.01
eye test v10.470.03
eye trend v1-0.20-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)57.7054.00
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.261.17
keeper form v10.650.59
league points14.008.00
league rank3.0012.00
matches since blank8.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.6081.60
possession avg (last 5)45.2059.20
rest days3.793.79
scorer concentration0.230.29
season ppg2.001.14
skill v1-0.931.18
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.705.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.20
state index0.16-0.70
sterile dominance v1-0.961.02
threat rate (last 10)0.280.24
threat rate (last 3)0.270.22
threat rate (last 5)0.300.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40