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Bochum 2–0 Ingolstadt

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Sep 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Schlager, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ingolstadt win38%2.55
Bochum win33%2.92
Draw28%3.44

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'⚽Felix Bastians · Bochum
27'⚽Robbie Kruse · Bochum
30'🟨Kevin Stöger · Bochum
33'🟨Almog Cohen · Ingolstadt
53'🟨Danilo Soares · Bochum
65'🟨Darío Lezcano · Ingolstadt
76'🟨Stefan Lex · Ingolstadt
80'🟨Christian Träsch · Ingolstadt

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
16Shots15
6On target3
5Corners4
17Fouls25
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBochumIngolstadt
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.32
box share (last 5)0.570.66
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1028.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVonovia Ruhrstadion
54.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.003.69
elo1398.441461.58
elo momentum (last 5)-10.603.94
eye test v10.300.59
eye trend v1-0.290.07
first sub minute (last 10)53.1058.90
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.16
keeper form v10.570.68
league points7.007.00
league rank15.0016.00
matches since blank4.005.00
matches since clean sheet12.001.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.4067.60
possession avg (last 5)56.2050.20
rest days2.714.79
scorer concentration0.330.40
season ppg1.001.00
skill v10.64-0.89
sot against avg (last 5)5.205.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.005.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.605.60
state index-0.75-0.10
sterile dominance v10.35-1.34
threat rate (last 10)0.280.33
threat rate (last 3)0.210.41
threat rate (last 5)0.250.36
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.60