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Regensburg 2–1 Braunschweig

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sat, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Reichel, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig win37%2.65
Regensburg win36%2.74
Draw28%3.55

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟥Salim Khelifi · Braunschweig
41'🟨Benedikt Saller · Regensburg
42'⚽Joseph Baffo · Braunschweig
43'🟨Sargis Adamyan · Regensburg
45'🟨Andreas Geipl · Regensburg
47'⚽Marco Grüttner · Regensburg
62'🟨Sebastian Stolze · Regensburg
64'🟥Maximilian Sauer · Braunschweig
67'🟨Mirko Boland · Braunschweig
77'⚽Jonas Nietfeld · Regensburg
83'🟨Joseph Baffo · Braunschweig
90'🟨Ken Reichel · Braunschweig
90'🟨Mirko Boland · Braunschweig
90'🟥Mirko Boland · Braunschweig

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
30Shots8
6On target4
11Corners4
18Fouls16
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards3

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRegensburgBraunschweig
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.220.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.580.49
cards avg (last 5)2.202.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueContinental Arena
coach days84.003432.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.12
corner diff avg (last 5)2.400.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.204.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.605.00
corners volatility (last 10)—2.67
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.07
dominance (last 5)0.510.48
elo1324.421584.95
elo momentum (last 5)24.41-1.48
eye test v1-0.030.19
eye trend v10.08-0.20
first sub minute (last 10)60.7160.70
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.320.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.25
keeper form v10.720.74
league points6.0011.00
league rank17.0010.00
matches since blank0.008.00
matches since clean sheet12.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.4067.80
possession avg (last 5)50.4045.00
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.330.30
season ppg0.861.57
shot diff avg (last 5)1.00-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)15.6013.00
skill v1-0.90-1.23
sot against avg (last 5)6.206.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.715.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.605.00
squad age25.8125.90
state index-0.570.25
sterile dominance v1-0.92-1.04
threat rate (last 10)0.290.33
threat rate (last 3)0.310.32
threat rate (last 5)0.310.29
venue ppg (last 5)0.001.20