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Braunschweig 3–0 Greuther Furth

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 Β· Wed, Sep 20, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Matthias Jollenbeck, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig win44%2.24
Greuther Furth win28%3.44
Draw28%3.53

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'⚽Christoffer Nyman · Braunschweig
28'⚽Joseph Baffo · Braunschweig
32'🟨Mirko Boland · Braunschweig
79'⚽Dominick Kumbela · Braunschweig
90'🟨Maximilian Wittek · Greuther Furth

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
10Shots18
6On target7
5Corners1
17Fouls15
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBraunschweigGreuther Furth
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.530.48
cards avg (last 5)2.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueEintracht-Stadion
2.40
coach days3429.0019.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.200.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.604.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.062.92
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.15
dominance (last 5)0.480.61
elo1576.281443.38
elo momentum (last 5)-1.13-12.43
eye test v1-0.160.70
eye trend v1-0.340.25
first sub minute (last 10)58.4055.00
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.750.67
league points8.004.00
league rank15.0018.00
matches since blank7.002.00
matches since clean sheet4.0010.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.4076.80
possession avg (last 5)43.8053.80
rest days5.003.00
scorer concentration0.290.33
season ppg1.330.67
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.005.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.6016.40
skill v1-1.250.31
sot against avg (last 5)5.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.204.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.205.80
squad age25.3825.46
state index0.24-0.30
sterile dominance v1-1.10-0.24
threat rate (last 10)0.330.29
threat rate (last 3)0.320.33
threat rate (last 5)0.290.30
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.60