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Heidenheim 2–2 Darmstadt

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Wed, Sep 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Alt, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Heidenheim win40%2.44
Draw30%3.27
Darmstadt win30%3.28

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

32'⚽Nikola Dovedan · Heidenheim
35'⚽Artur Sobiech · Darmstadt
51'🟨Hamit Altintop · Darmstadt
55'🟨Aytaç Sulu · Darmstadt
60'⚽Ben Halloran · Heidenheim
66'🟨Immanuel Höhn · Darmstadt
79'🟨Mathias Wittek · Heidenheim
85'⚽Aytaç Sulu · Darmstadt
87'🟨Sebastian Griesbeck · Heidenheim
89'🟨Julian von Haacke · Darmstadt
90'🟨Markus Steinhofer · Darmstadt

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
12Shots11
4On target4
3Corners6
17Fouls17
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHeidenheimDarmstadt
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.48
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.460.58
cards avg (last 5)1.801.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVoith-Arena
coach days3672.001754.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.00-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)7.205.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.203.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.271.71
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.13
dominance (last 5)0.430.52
elo1448.211569.14
elo momentum (last 5)-40.4824.40
eye test v1-0.220.60
eye trend v10.44-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)58.7056.80
form points (last 5)3.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.801.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.26
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.000.30
keeper form v10.620.67
league points6.0016.00
league rank17.001.00
matches since blank2.008.00
matches since clean sheet9.004.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.4071.40
possession avg (last 5)45.8047.80
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.330.27
season ppg0.862.29
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.001.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.4012.40
skill v1-0.80-0.66
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.60
squad age26.5627.66
state index-0.610.54
sterile dominance v1-0.80-0.70
threat rate (last 10)0.240.29
threat rate (last 3)0.320.26
threat rate (last 5)0.280.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.60