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Darmstadt 4–3 Bielefeld

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Sep 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Florian Badstubner, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Darmstadt win44%2.21
Draw28%3.46
Bielefeld win28%3.52

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨Manuel Prietl · Bielefeld
30'⚽Andreas Voglsammer · Bielefeld
31'⚽Kevin Großkreutz · Darmstadt
35'⚽Fabian Klos · Bielefeld
39'🟨Hamit Altintop · Darmstadt
53'⚽Immanuel Höhn · Darmstadt
64'⚽Kevin Großkreutz · Darmstadt
70'🟨Brian Behrendt · Bielefeld
84'⚽Artur Sobiech · Darmstadt
90'⚽Sören Brandy · Bielefeld

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
12Shots16
4On target4
4Corners4
13Fouls10
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDarmstadtBielefeld
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.510.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.500.32
box share (last 5)0.500.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1751.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadion am Böllenfalltor
443.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.001.62
elo1449.041442.62
elo momentum (last 5)26.0014.76
eye test v10.69-0.22
eye trend v10.40-0.36
first sub minute (last 10)58.5059.70
form points (last 5)10.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.081.62
keeper form v10.720.75
league points10.0010.00
league rank5.006.00
matches since blank6.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.0068.80
possession avg (last 5)50.0044.80
rest days7.008.02
scorer concentration0.290.33
season ppg2.002.00
skill v1-0.44-1.14
sot against avg (last 5)3.406.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.704.60
sot for avg (last 3)6.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.804.00
state index0.22-0.17
sterile dominance v1-0.43-1.02
threat rate (last 10)0.290.34
threat rate (last 3)0.340.27
threat rate (last 5)0.270.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40