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Greuther Furth 3–1 Fortuna Dusseldorf

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Sep 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Petersen, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fortuna Dusseldorf win38%2.56
Greuther Furth win33%2.96
Draw29%3.38

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Marcel Sobottka · Fortuna Dusseldorf
26'🟨Kaan Ayhan · Fortuna Dusseldorf
27'🟨Jürgen Gjasula · Greuther Furth
35'⚽Serdar Dursun · Greuther Furth
37'🟨Levent Ayçiçek · Greuther Furth
44'⚽Marco Caligiuri · Greuther Furth
45'🟨Julian Green · Greuther Furth
62'⚽ (pen)Niko Giesselmann · Fortuna Dusseldorf
63'⚽Serdar Dursun · Greuther Furth

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
24Shots7
9On target3
10Corners3
16Fouls18
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGreuther FurthFortuna Dusseldorf
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.37
box share (last 5)0.440.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days16.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
565.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.472.95
elo1381.481466.70
elo momentum (last 5)-34.1453.89
eye test v1-0.090.16
eye trend v10.070.48
first sub minute (last 10)52.4056.40
form points (last 5)1.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.001.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.602.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.480.95
keeper form v10.68—
league points1.0013.00
league rank18.002.00
matches since blank1.008.00
matches since clean sheet9.002.00
matches since win9.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4076.40
possession avg (last 5)52.2049.20
rest days8.797.00
scorer concentration—0.27
season ppg0.202.60
skill v1-0.04-0.05
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.60
state index-1.290.58
sterile dominance v1-0.11-0.20
threat rate (last 10)0.290.26
threat rate (last 3)0.270.31
threat rate (last 5)0.260.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.602.00