← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Fri, Sep 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 38% | 2.58 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 33% | 2.93 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.39 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 24 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.66 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 |
| venue | Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 106.00 | 410.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1455.79 | 1515.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.21 | 15.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.95 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.53 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | — |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| league points | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.36 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.26 | 27.31 |
| state index | 0.06 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.00 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | — |