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Braunschweig 1–1 SV Sandhausen

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 Β· Sun, Sep 10, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Sven Jablonski, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig win48%2.05
Draw28%3.45
SV Sandhausen win24%4.04

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'🟨Louis Samson · Braunschweig
48'⚽Mirko Boland · Braunschweig
74'🟨Damian Roßbach · SV Sandhausen
83'⚽Philipp Klingmann · SV Sandhausen
89'🟨Dominick Kumbela · Braunschweig

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
18Shots7
6On target4
7Corners7
17Fouls22
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBraunschweigSV Sandhausen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
box share (last 5)0.600.58
cards avg (last 5)2.20
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueEintracht-Stadion
1.60
coach days3419.00436.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.15β€”
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-2.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.205.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.802.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.111.65
defensive leak (last 5)0.10β€”
dominance (last 5)0.41β€”
elo1578.961484.44
elo momentum (last 5)2.8027.22
eye test v10.74-0.66
eye trend v1-0.370.31
first sub minute (last 10)56.7051.00
form points (last 5)9.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.851.35
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
keeper form v10.750.71
league points6.007.00
league rank15.0011.00
matches since blank5.006.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.4068.80
possession avg (last 5)44.6044.60
rest days13.0014.00
scorer concentration0.200.29
season ppg1.501.75
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.00β€”
shots for avg (last 5)9.80β€”
skill v1-0.88-1.15
sot against avg (last 5)4.402.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.003.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.203.40
squad age25.4326.25
state index0.360.34
sterile dominance v1-1.05-0.53
threat rate (last 10)0.330.23
threat rate (last 3)0.250.25
threat rate (last 5)0.310.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.60