← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sat, Sep 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Reichel, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 53% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.63 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 20% | 4.77 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Pascal Köpke · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 50' | ⚽ | Sören Bertram · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 55' | 🟨 | Darío Lezcano · Ingolstadt |
| 55' | 🟨 | Calogero Rizzuto · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 73' | 🟨 | Clemens Fandrich · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 78' | 🟨 | Marcel Gaus · Ingolstadt |
| 78' | 🟨 | Dennis Kempe · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 84' | ⚽ | Darío Lezcano · Ingolstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 31 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 15 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Audi Sportpark |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 39.00 | 100.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1551.13 | 1441.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.25 | -12.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| league points | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.50 | 0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.60 | 26.35 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.13 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |