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Ingolstadt 1–2 Erzgebirge AUE

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sat, Sep 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Reichel, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ingolstadt win53%1.85
Draw27%3.63
Erzgebirge AUE win20%4.77

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Pascal Köpke · Erzgebirge AUE
50'⚽Sören Bertram · Erzgebirge AUE
55'🟨Darío Lezcano · Ingolstadt
55'🟨Calogero Rizzuto · Erzgebirge AUE
73'🟨Clemens Fandrich · Erzgebirge AUE
78'🟨Marcel Gaus · Ingolstadt
78'🟨Dennis Kempe · Erzgebirge AUE
84'⚽Darío Lezcano · Ingolstadt

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
31Shots7
3On target4
15Corners2
14Fouls22
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricIngolstadtErzgebirge AUE
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.51
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.41
box share (last 5)0.660.49
cards avg (last 5)0.200.00
coach days39.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAudi Sportpark
100.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.022.62
elo1451.051422.39
elo momentum (last 5)-23.47-16.79
eye test v10.100.73
eye trend v10.040.51
first sub minute (last 10)61.2063.80
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.14
keeper form v10.680.63
league points3.004.00
league rank15.0014.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.005.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)64.4081.00
possession avg (last 5)46.0052.00
rest days14.7714.00
scorer concentration—0.40
season ppg0.751.00
skill v1-1.500.63
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.504.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.677.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.205.80
state index-0.61-0.61
sterile dominance v1-1.130.08
threat rate (last 10)0.270.26
threat rate (last 3)0.270.28
threat rate (last 5)0.290.27
venue ppg (last 5)0.400.20