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SV Sandhausen 1–2 Fortuna Dusseldorf

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 Β· Sun, Aug 27, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Florian Heft, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Sandhausen win39%2.47
Draw30%3.22
Fortuna Dusseldorf win30%3.23

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'⚽Lucas Hâler · SV Sandhausen
25'🟨Ihlas Bebou · Fortuna Dusseldorf
29'🟨Kaan Ayhan · Fortuna Dusseldorf
45'🟨Tim Knipping · SV Sandhausen
50'🟨Jean Zimmer · Fortuna Dusseldorf
51'⚽Ihlas Bebou · Fortuna Dusseldorf
63'🟨Adam Bodzek · Fortuna Dusseldorf
78'🟨Tim Kister · SV Sandhausen
88'🟨Erik Zenga · SV Sandhausen
90'⚽Rouwen Hennings · Fortuna Dusseldorf

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots10
3On target5
2Corners2
23Fouls24
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSV SandhausenFortuna Dusseldorf
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.540.60
cards avg (last 5)1.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueHardtwaldstadion
1.40
coach days422.00544.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)β€”0.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.000.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.805.40
corners for avg (last 5)1.805.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.183.71
defensive leak (last 5)β€”0.10
dominance (last 5)β€”0.43
elo1496.861471.09
elo momentum (last 5)50.9555.96
eye test v1-0.76-0.05
eye trend v10.43-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)52.0057.50
form points (last 5)11.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.350.85
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v1β€”0.71
league points7.007.00
league rank8.009.00
matches since blank5.006.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)64.8075.00
possession avg (last 5)42.2048.20
rest days8.008.00
scorer concentration0.170.33
season ppg2.332.33
shot diff avg (last 5)β€”-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)β€”11.60
skill v1-1.72-0.25
sot against avg (last 5)1.804.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.304.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.20
squad age27.0626.57
state index0.650.42
sterile dominance v1-0.79-0.23
threat rate (last 10)0.240.27
threat rate (last 3)0.260.22
threat rate (last 5)0.220.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40