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SV Sandhausen 1–2 Fortuna Dusseldorf

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Aug 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Florian Heft, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Sandhausen win39%2.47
Draw30%3.22
Fortuna Dusseldorf win30%3.23

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'⚽Lucas Höler · SV Sandhausen
25'🟨Ihlas Bebou · Fortuna Dusseldorf
29'🟨Kaan Ayhan · Fortuna Dusseldorf
45'🟨Tim Knipping · SV Sandhausen
50'🟨Jean Zimmer · Fortuna Dusseldorf
51'⚽Ihlas Bebou · Fortuna Dusseldorf
63'🟨Adam Bodzek · Fortuna Dusseldorf
78'🟨Tim Kister · SV Sandhausen
88'🟨Erik Zenga · SV Sandhausen
90'⚽Rouwen Hennings · Fortuna Dusseldorf

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots10
3On target5
2Corners2
23Fouls24
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSV SandhausenFortuna Dusseldorf
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.37
box share (last 5)0.540.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days422.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHardtwaldstadion
544.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.183.71
elo1487.651443.48
elo momentum (last 5)46.2952.47
eye test v1-0.76-0.05
eye trend v10.43-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)52.0057.50
form points (last 5)11.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.350.85
keeper form v1—0.71
league points7.007.00
league rank7.008.00
matches since blank5.006.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)64.8075.00
possession avg (last 5)42.2048.20
rest days8.028.02
scorer concentration0.170.33
season ppg2.332.33
skill v1-1.72-0.25
sot against avg (last 5)1.804.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.304.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.20
state index0.540.40
sterile dominance v1-0.79-0.23
threat rate (last 10)0.240.27
threat rate (last 3)0.260.22
threat rate (last 5)0.220.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40