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Bochum 3–2 Dresden

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Aug 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bibiana Steinhaus, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum win55%1.76
Draw24%4.06
Dresden win21%4.71

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Philip Heise · Dresden
16'⚽Felix Bastians · Bochum
27'⚽ (pen)Felix Bastians · Bochum
56'🟨Niklas Kreuzer · Dresden
63'🟨Erich Berko · Dresden
70'🟨Maxim Leitsch · Bochum
73'🟨Haris Duljević · Dresden
77'⚽Aias Aosman · Dresden
80'🟨Selim Gündüz · Bochum
88'⚽Lukas Hinterseer · Bochum
90'🟨Lukas Hinterseer · Bochum
90'🟨Aias Aosman · Dresden

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
10Shots15
5On target5
3Corners8
14Fouls15
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBochumDresden
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.640.68
cards avg (last 5)0.801.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVonovia Ruhrstadion
coach days1000.00788.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.03—
corner diff avg (last 5)3.801.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.203.40
corners for avg (last 5)7.005.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.591.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.14—
dominance (last 5)0.53—
elo1480.591458.67
elo momentum (last 5)-38.79-3.21
eye test v10.710.44
eye trend v1-0.17-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)55.8056.00
form points (last 5)2.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.770.65
league points2.007.00
league rank17.005.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet10.002.00
matches since win5.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0083.00
possession avg (last 5)55.2058.40
rest days6.008.00
season ppg0.501.75
shot diff avg (last 5)2.40—
shots for avg (last 5)17.00—
skill v10.551.28
sot against avg (last 5)5.604.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.405.00
squad age26.4725.45
state index-0.58-0.41
sterile dominance v1-0.340.73
threat rate (last 10)0.290.22
threat rate (last 3)0.330.20
threat rate (last 5)0.330.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80