β 2. Bundesliga 2017 Β· Sun, Aug 20, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Markus Schmidt, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 48% | 2.02 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.34 |
| Greuther Furth win | 23% | 4.32 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | β½ | JΓΌrgen Gjasula Β· Greuther Furth |
| 25' | β½ | Marvin Ducksch Β· Holstein Kiel |
| 32' | β½ | Dominik Schmidt Β· Holstein Kiel |
| 69' | π¨ | Sebastian Heidinger Β· Holstein Kiel |
| 76' | β½ (pen) | Dominick Drexler Β· Holstein Kiel |
| 78' | π¨ | Mario MaloΔa Β· Greuther Furth |
| 84' | π¨ | Marvin Ducksch Β· Holstein Kiel |
| 88' | π¨ | Maximilian Wittek Β· Greuther Furth |
| 90' | π¨ | Rafael Czichos Β· Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | β | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | β | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | β | 0.80 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 384.00 | 268.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | β | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | β | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | β | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | β | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | β | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | β | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | β | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | β | 0.49 |
| elo | 1491.00 | 1444.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | β | -37.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | β | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | β | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | β | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | β | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | β | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | β | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | β | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | β | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | β | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.74 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | β | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | β | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.64 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | β | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.50 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.50 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.24 | 25.83 |
| state index | -0.23 | -0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | β | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | β | 0.40 |