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Holstein Kiel 3–1 Greuther Furth

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 Β· Sun, Aug 20, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Markus Schmidt, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Holstein Kiel win48%2.02
Draw29%3.34
Greuther Furth win23%4.32

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Jürgen Gjasula · Greuther Furth
25'⚽Marvin Ducksch · Holstein Kiel
32'⚽Dominik Schmidt · Holstein Kiel
69'🟨Sebastian Heidinger · Holstein Kiel
76'⚽ (pen)Dominick Drexler · Holstein Kiel
78'🟨Mario Maloča · Greuther Furth
84'🟨Marvin Ducksch · Holstein Kiel
88'🟨Maximilian Wittek · Greuther Furth
90'🟨Rafael Czichos · Holstein Kiel

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
18Shots13
8On target5
4Corners3
15Fouls14
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricHolstein KielGreuther Furth
accuracy ratio (last 10)β€”0.25
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.20
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.23
box share (last 5)0.690.60
cards avg (last 5)β€”0.00
coach days384.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueHolstein-Stadion
268.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)β€”2.25
elo1489.471396.69
elo momentum (last 5)β€”-40.52
eye test v10.100.10
eye trend v1β€”-0.26
first sub minute (last 10)β€”54.90
form points (last 5)β€”1.00
goal diff avg (last 5)β€”-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)β€”1.40
goals for avg (last 5)β€”0.60
goals volatility (last 10)β€”0.53
keeper form v10.500.74
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.006.00
matches since win2.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.0077.40
possession avg (last 5)53.0056.40
rest days15.7913.92
season ppg0.500.00
skill v1-0.630.57
sot against avg (last 5)6.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)β€”3.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.503.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.504.20
state index-0.26-1.16
sterile dominance v1-0.65-0.02
threat rate (last 10)β€”0.28
threat rate (last 3)0.300.23
threat rate (last 5)0.300.30
venue ppg (last 5)β€”0.40