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Ingolstadt 2–4 Regensburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Aug 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Fritz, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ingolstadt win61%1.60
Draw24%4.11
Regensburg win15%6.47

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

27'⚽Joshua Mees · Regensburg
52'⚽Sonny Kittel · Ingolstadt
55'🟨Marco Grüttner · Regensburg
57'⚽Marvin Matip · Ingolstadt
64'🟨Tobias Schröck · Ingolstadt
73'⚽Jann George · Regensburg
75'🟨Asger Sørensen · Regensburg
79'⚽Jann George · Regensburg
86'🟨Paulo Otávio · Ingolstadt
90'🟨Sonny Kittel · Ingolstadt
90'⚽Jonas Nietfeld · Regensburg

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
19Shots19
8On target11
6Corners5
16Fouls20
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricIngolstadtRegensburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.35—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.13
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.13
box share (last 5)0.580.45
cards avg (last 5)1.00—
coach days19.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAudi Sportpark
50.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.97—
elo1457.641475.94
elo momentum (last 5)-12.31—
eye test v10.27-1.47
eye trend v10.01—
first sub minute (last 10)61.50—
form points (last 5)3.00—
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40—
goals against avg (last 5)1.00—
goals for avg (last 5)0.60—
goals volatility (last 10)1.20—
keeper form v10.62—
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win8.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.2067.50
possession avg (last 5)48.0047.50
rest days15.7914.00
season ppg0.000.00
skill v1-1.17-1.07
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.10—
sot for avg (last 3)5.331.50
sot for avg (last 5)5.401.50
state index-0.68-0.26
sterile dominance v1-1.06-0.49
threat rate (last 10)0.28—
threat rate (last 3)0.280.23
threat rate (last 5)0.300.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.00—