← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Mon, Aug 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 56% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.76 |
| Dresden win | 18% | 5.43 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Bernd Nehrig · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 9' | 🟨 | Jannik Müller · Dresden |
| 22' | ⚽ | Christopher Buchtmann · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 29' | ⚽ | Marco Hartmann · Dresden |
| 69' | ⚽ | Christopher Buchtmann · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 73' | ⚽ | Lucas Röser · Dresden |
| 79' | 🟨 | Florian Ballas · Dresden |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rico Benatelli · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.20 |
| venue | Millerntor-Stadion |
| 0.20 |
| coach days | 965.00 | 768.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | — |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | — |
| elo | 1554.77 | 1477.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.23 | 12.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | 1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.70 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | — |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | — |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | 1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 27.99 | 25.63 |
| state index | 0.62 | -0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |