← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, Aug 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Brych, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 36% | 2.71 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 34% | 2.89 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.22 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 |
| venue | Sparkassen Erzgebirgsstadion |
| 0.40 |
| coach days | 66.00 | 523.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 3.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1444.57 | 1440.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.06 | 19.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | — | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.56 | 26.53 |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |