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Darmstadt 1–0 Greuther Furth

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sat, Jul 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Darmstadt win44%2.20
Draw29%3.38
Greuther Furth win27%3.63

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

35'🟨Benedikt Kirsch · Greuther Furth
56'⚽Aytaç Sulu · Darmstadt
68'🟨Kevin Großkreutz · Darmstadt
87'🟨Sebastian Ernst · Greuther Furth
87'🟨Nik Omladič · Greuther Furth
89'🟨Serdar Dursun · Greuther Furth

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots10
5On target1
2Corners5
13Fouls21
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDarmstadtGreuther Furth
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.630.63
cards avg (last 5)1.600.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadion am Böllenfalltor
coach days1701.00246.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.401.80
corners against avg (last 5)7.804.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.405.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.872.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.14
dominance (last 5)0.440.47
elo1538.861462.07
elo momentum (last 5)29.57-10.85
eye test v1-0.190.18
eye trend v10.130.18
first sub minute (last 10)48.4059.00
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.200.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.67—
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.004.00
matches since win3.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0076.40
possession avg (last 5)43.6051.80
rest days30.0030.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.80-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.0013.80
skill v1-0.660.16
sot against avg (last 5)6.402.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.203.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.20
squad age27.5925.87
state index0.32-0.38
sterile dominance v1-0.98-0.53
threat rate (last 10)0.290.30
threat rate (last 3)0.320.34
threat rate (last 5)0.300.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00