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Oviedo 2–1 Huesca

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Jun 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Valentin Pizarro Gomez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win53%1.83
Huesca win24%4.09
Draw24%4.11

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽Diegui · Oviedo
32'🟨Rajko Brežančić · Huesca
53'🟨David Rocha · Oviedo
56'🟨Juan Aguilera · Huesca
59'🟨Lluis Sastre · Huesca
70'🟨Alexander González · Huesca
72'⚽Miguel Linares · Oviedo
74'🟨Toché · Oviedo
74'🟨Roberto Santamaria · Huesca
81'⚽Jair Amador · Huesca
87'🟨Alfonso Herrero · Oviedo
89'🟨Moi Gómez · Huesca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots12
5On target6
7Corners4
18Fouls10
3Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoHuesca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.48
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.640.67
cards avg (last 5)3.602.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJorge Garbajosa
coach days336.00336.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.20
corner diff avg (last 5)1.600.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.405.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.005.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.162.07
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.10
dominance (last 5)0.550.47
elo1491.791559.70
elo momentum (last 5)-9.269.31
eye test v1-0.170.13
eye trend v10.09-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)66.5059.70
form points (last 5)9.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.51
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.640.74
league points72.0080.00
league rank5.002.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.4071.60
possession avg (last 5)49.4047.60
rest days6.006.00
scorer concentration0.190.25
season ppg1.601.78
shot diff avg (last 5)2.20-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.0010.60
skill v1-0.88-0.67
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.80
squad age29.5725.57
state index0.010.33
sterile dominance v1-0.48-0.24
threat rate (last 10)0.220.24
threat rate (last 3)0.250.25
threat rate (last 5)0.250.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.402.00