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Numancia 2–1 Cultural Leonesa

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Jun 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Numancia win53%1.83
Draw25%3.95
Cultural Leonesa win23%4.30

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Guillermo · Numancia
8'🟨Rodri · Cultural Leonesa
15'🟨Pere Milla · Numancia
66'🟨David García · Cultural Leonesa
79'⚽Unai Medina · Numancia
82'🟨Antonio Martinez Felipe · Cultural Leonesa
83'⚽Rodri · Cultural Leonesa

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots5
8On target1
3Corners5
17Fouls9
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNumanciaCultural Leonesa
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.630.65
cards avg (last 5)0.803.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLos Pajaritos
coach days1.00762.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.15
corner diff avg (last 5)1.80-3.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.806.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.603.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.552.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.10
dominance (last 5)0.570.50
elo1469.391441.43
elo momentum (last 5)-52.018.77
eye test v10.11-0.12
eye trend v10.510.46
first sub minute (last 10)56.7063.40
form points (last 5)1.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.27
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.35
keeper form v10.760.67
league points68.0054.00
league rank10.0017.00
matches since blank4.003.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)64.8077.20
possession avg (last 5)49.2049.60
rest days5.816.00
scorer concentration0.200.22
season ppg1.511.20
shot diff avg (last 5)3.200.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.0011.20
skill v1-1.260.05
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.60
sot for avg (last 3)6.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.00
squad age27.2425.74
state index-0.62-0.12
sterile dominance v1-0.930.02
threat rate (last 10)0.280.23
threat rate (last 3)0.330.30
threat rate (last 5)0.290.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.20