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Lugo 1–1 Almeria

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Jun 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win53%1.82
Draw27%3.59
Lugo win20%4.86

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Jorge Morcillo · Almeria
37'🟨Fernando Seoane · Lugo
50'🟨Nano · Almeria
62'🟨Lucien Owona · Almeria
64'🟨Renê · Almeria
65'⚽ (pen)Carlos Pita · Lugo
69'⚽Fidel · Almeria

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
8Shots6
3On target5
7Corners4
15Fouls14
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLugoAlmeria
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.710.61
cards avg (last 5)2.802.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAnxo Carro
coach days336.00458.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.07
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.805.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.502.63
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.03
dominance (last 5)0.510.38
elo1424.581430.61
elo momentum (last 5)-3.528.99
eye test v1-0.32-0.91
eye trend v10.18-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)56.0055.30
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.530.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.740.79
league points61.0053.00
league rank13.0020.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.2072.40
possession avg (last 5)59.0038.60
rest days6.006.00
scorer concentration0.190.21
season ppg1.361.18
shot diff avg (last 5)0.20-4.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.008.60
skill v11.20-1.20
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.102.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.402.60
squad age27.7627.18
state index-0.35-0.40
sterile dominance v10.97-0.80
threat rate (last 10)0.190.22
threat rate (last 3)0.230.20
threat rate (last 5)0.210.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.40