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Cultural Leonesa 2–0 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, May 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruben Eiriz Mata, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cultural Leonesa win43%2.27
Oviedo win30%3.21
Draw27%3.55

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'🟨Carlos Hernández · Oviedo
37'🟨Rodri · Cultural Leonesa
37'🟨Juan Forlin · Oviedo
45'🟨Carlos Hernández · Oviedo
45'🟨Hector Verdes · Oviedo
45'⚽ (pen)Josep Señé · Cultural Leonesa
64'🟨Saúl Berjón · Oviedo
64'🟨Diego Fabbrini · Oviedo
72'🟨David García · Cultural Leonesa
85'🟨Miguel Linares · Oviedo
90'🟨Samuel Delgado · Cultural Leonesa
90'⚽Rodri · Cultural Leonesa

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots10
6On target2
4Corners6
10Fouls18
3Yellow cards7
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCultural LeonesaOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.590.56
cards avg (last 5)3.403.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Reino de Leon
coach days756.00330.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.801.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.004.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.206.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.273.24
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.15
dominance (last 5)0.460.56
elo1425.471507.76
elo momentum (last 5)-4.19-8.28
eye test v1-0.350.01
eye trend v10.010.35
first sub minute (last 10)59.2066.90
form points (last 5)6.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.340.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.640.62
league points51.0072.00
league rank19.004.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet2.003.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8068.00
possession avg (last 5)50.2049.40
rest days8.008.00
scorer concentration0.200.19
season ppg1.161.64
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.802.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.6012.00
skill v10.25-0.92
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.80
squad age25.9529.72
state index-0.42-0.16
sterile dominance v10.24-0.50
threat rate (last 10)0.220.22
threat rate (last 3)0.250.27
threat rate (last 5)0.220.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80