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Cadiz 1–1 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, May 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alvaro Moreno Aragon

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win50%1.93
Draw30%3.20
Tenerife win20%4.94

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Bryan Acosta · Tenerife
41'🟨Dani Hernández · Tenerife
60'🟨Víctor Casadesús · Tenerife
62'⚽Alberto Perea · Cadiz
90'⚽Filip Malbašić · Tenerife

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots10
2On target4
7Corners4
14Fouls15
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCadizTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.640.58
cards avg (last 5)1.801.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Ramon de Carranza
coach days786.00115.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.07
corner diff avg (last 5)1.800.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.005.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.805.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.061.23
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.12
dominance (last 5)0.490.54
elo1548.271510.15
elo momentum (last 5)-11.4310.95
eye test v1-0.180.41
eye trend v10.45-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)47.5059.30
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.770.68
league points71.0064.00
league rank5.0011.00
matches since blank4.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6077.40
possession avg (last 5)50.8050.80
rest days7.008.79
scorer concentration0.280.20
season ppg1.611.45
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.202.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.2015.40
skill v10.170.15
sot against avg (last 5)3.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.003.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.80
squad age28.2029.90
state index-0.010.02
sterile dominance v10.46-0.49
threat rate (last 10)0.180.29
threat rate (last 3)0.180.30
threat rate (last 5)0.190.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80