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Zaragoza 4–1 Albacete

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gorka Sagues Oscoz, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win53%1.84
Draw28%3.43
Albacete win19%5.04

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Giorgi Papunashvili · Zaragoza
21'🟨Jon Erice · Albacete
22'⚽Roman Zozulya · Albacete
28'⚽Giorgi Papunashvili · Zaragoza
42'⚽Alberto Zapater · Zaragoza
53'🟨Giorgi Papunashvili · Zaragoza
56'⚽Giorgi Papunashvili · Zaragoza
76'🟨Mikel González · Zaragoza
79'🟨Borja Iglesias · Zaragoza
86'🟨Dani Rodríguez · Albacete

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1
6Shots19
5On target5
4Corners10
6Fouls14
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaAlbacete
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.500.61
cards avg (last 5)2.002.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLa Romareda
coach days323.00231.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-9.40-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)12.205.40
corners for avg (last 5)2.803.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.622.92
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.14
dominance (last 5)0.440.55
elo1527.291419.01
elo momentum (last 5)16.28-23.06
eye test v10.360.07
eye trend v10.140.48
first sub minute (last 10)55.5062.30
form points (last 5)10.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
keeper form v10.800.71
league points69.0054.00
league rank6.0015.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet6.006.00
matches since win1.009.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6062.60
possession avg (last 5)51.6040.20
rest days6.008.00
scorer concentration0.350.30
season ppg1.601.26
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.602.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.6013.60
skill v10.53-2.10
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.603.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.80
squad age27.3828.36
state index0.19-1.00
sterile dominance v10.43-1.95
threat rate (last 10)0.250.32
threat rate (last 3)0.240.37
threat rate (last 5)0.220.34
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.40