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Barcelona B 3–1 Cadiz

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Perez Pallas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Barcelona B win40%2.44
Draw31%3.13
Cadiz win29%3.29

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Jon Ander Garrido · Cadiz
16'⚽Marc Cardona · Barcelona B
26'⚽ (pen)Marc Cardona · Barcelona B
32'🟨Javier Carpio · Cadiz
34'🟨Carles Pérez · Barcelona B
45'⚽Matías Nahuel · Barcelona B
51'🟨David Costas · Barcelona B
87'🟨Alberto Perea · Cadiz
89'⚽Álvaro García · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
13Shots10
6On target6
5Corners2
21Fouls14
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBarcelona BCadiz
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.560.65
cards avg (last 5)3.001.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMini Estadi
coach days49.00779.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.10
corner diff avg (last 5)1.203.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.003.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.206.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.471.65
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.06
dominance (last 5)0.560.49
elo1380.971568.54
elo momentum (last 5)13.438.43
eye test v10.67-0.67
eye trend v10.400.28
first sub minute (last 10)61.7053.10
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.200.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.630.82
league points47.0071.00
league rank21.005.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet12.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.6077.20
possession avg (last 5)55.8050.60
rest days8.006.00
scorer concentration0.210.26
season ppg1.091.65
shot diff avg (last 5)3.00-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.408.60
skill v11.130.11
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.603.20
sot for avg (last 3)6.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.00
squad age22.0228.27
state index-0.420.31
sterile dominance v10.480.54
threat rate (last 10)0.250.20
threat rate (last 3)0.290.19
threat rate (last 5)0.260.18
venue ppg (last 5)0.201.20