⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Granada 1–0 Reus

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Saul Ais Reig, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Granada win59%1.65
Draw26%3.71
Reus win15%6.27

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Álex Martínez · Granada
75'🟨Édgar Hernández · Reus

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
16Shots4
4On target1
6Corners5
7Fouls13
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGranadaReus
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.180.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.560.72
cards avg (last 5)2.402.00
coach days322.00322.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.10
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNuevo Los Cármenes
corner diff avg (last 5)
-1.00
0.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.823.89
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.02
dominance (last 5)0.580.41
elo1442.571487.59
elo momentum (last 5)-36.4928.01
eye test v1-0.26-0.22
eye trend v1-0.310.29
first sub minute (last 10)62.1059.90
form points (last 5)2.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.47
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.480.79
league points59.0061.00
league rank14.0013.00
matches since blank0.007.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win8.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8078.20
possession avg (last 5)54.0048.60
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration0.250.28
season ppg1.401.42
shot diff avg (last 5)3.20-5.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.0011.00
skill v10.200.08
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.80
squad age27.7629.03
state index-0.890.16
sterile dominance v10.090.13
threat rate (last 10)0.250.23
threat rate (last 3)0.250.25
threat rate (last 5)0.250.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20