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Cadiz 2–0 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2017 · Mon, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Inaki Vicandi Garrido, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win48%2.01
Draw30%3.25
Zaragoza win23%4.26

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽David Barral · Cadiz
14'🟨Julián Delmás · Zaragoza
36'🟨Álex Fernández · Cadiz
53'🟨Aleix Febas · Zaragoza
66'🟨Julián Delmás · Zaragoza
66'🟥Julián Delmás · Zaragoza
67'⚽Álvaro García · Cadiz
88'🟨Oliver Buff · Zaragoza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots7
3On target3
9Corners3
20Fouls20
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCadizZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.47
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.670.49
cards avg (last 5)1.601.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Ramon de Carranza
coach days773.00317.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.12
corner diff avg (last 5)2.60-8.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.8011.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.402.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.452.62
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.08
dominance (last 5)0.560.47
elo1556.851538.98
elo momentum (last 5)-14.7521.43
eye test v1-0.730.74
eye trend v10.310.24
first sub minute (last 10)51.2053.60
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.200.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.40
keeper form v10.790.82
league points68.0069.00
league rank4.003.00
matches since blank2.007.00
matches since clean sheet2.005.00
matches since win8.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4079.40
possession avg (last 5)56.2047.40
rest days8.008.92
scorer concentration0.240.35
season ppg1.621.64
shot diff avg (last 5)0.60-3.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.2012.60
skill v10.520.12
sot against avg (last 5)2.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.104.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.676.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.805.80
squad age27.5527.08
state index-0.170.34
sterile dominance v10.90-0.36
threat rate (last 10)0.190.27
threat rate (last 3)0.180.27
threat rate (last 5)0.170.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.00