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CA Osasuna 2–1 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CA Osasuna win46%2.11
Draw31%3.17
Oviedo win24%4.09

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Miguel Linares · Oviedo
55'🟨Ramon Folch · Oviedo
58'🟨Alfonso Herrero · Oviedo
59'⚽ (pen)Fran Mérida · CA Osasuna
68'🟨Francisco Varela · Oviedo
73'🟨Aridane Hernández · CA Osasuna
73'🟨David Rocha · Oviedo
73'🟨Miguel Linares · Oviedo
75'🟨Robert Ibáñez · CA Osasuna
81'🟨Miguel Flaño · CA Osasuna
83'⚽David Rodriguez · CA Osasuna
90'🟨Fran Mérida · CA Osasuna
90'🟨Lillo Castellano · CA Osasuna

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
15Shots5
5On target2
6Corners1
22Fouls18
5Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCA OsasunaOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.610.55
cards avg (last 5)2.803.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio El Sadar
coach days345.00315.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.604.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.752.98
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.09
dominance (last 5)0.510.53
elo1500.961507.31
elo momentum (last 5)9.11-5.38
eye test v1-0.80-0.11
eye trend v10.080.39
first sub minute (last 10)59.7063.50
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.790.59
league points64.0066.00
league rank10.008.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.0069.20
possession avg (last 5)46.8051.80
rest days6.006.00
scorer concentration0.210.18
season ppg1.521.61
shot diff avg (last 5)0.201.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.6010.60
skill v1-0.89-0.63
sot against avg (last 5)3.202.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.60
squad age28.1529.67
state index0.07-0.04
sterile dominance v1-0.33-0.02
threat rate (last 10)0.210.21
threat rate (last 3)0.210.23
threat rate (last 5)0.220.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.80