← Segunda División 2017 · Fri, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alvaro Moreno Aragon
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Numancia win | 43% | 2.27 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.34 |
| Lorca FC win | 28% | 3.43 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Carlos Gutiérrez · Lorca FC |
| 46' | 🟨 | Carlos Peña · Lorca FC |
| 53' | 🟨 | Nando · Lorca FC |
| 61' | ⚽ | Nando · Lorca FC |
| 66' | ⚽ | Manu Del Moral · Numancia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alberto Noguera · Lorca FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 5 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lorca FC | Numancia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio Francisco Artes Carrasco |
| coach days | 283.00 | 1075.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1322.77 | 1509.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.85 | 22.89 |
| eye test v1 | -1.14 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.78 |
| league points | 28.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 62.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.02 | -1.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.24 | 26.68 |
| state index | -0.57 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |