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Oviedo 2–0 Lorca FC

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Antonio Lopez Toca

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win67%1.45
Draw22%4.41
Lorca FC win11%8.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Juan Pina · Lorca FC
32'🟨Mossa · Oviedo
34'🟥Juan Pina · Lorca FC
35'⚽Miguel Linares · Oviedo
59'🟨Juan Forlin · Oviedo
74'⚽Miguel Linares · Oviedo
76'🟨Alberto Noguera · Lorca FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots4
6On target1
9Corners6
14Fouls16
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoLorca FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.530.66
cards avg (last 5)3.203.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJorge Garbajosa
coach days309.00278.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.604.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.603.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.422.60
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.10
dominance (last 5)0.490.48
elo1501.061329.02
elo momentum (last 5)-26.0825.76
eye test v1-0.50-0.68
eye trend v10.56-0.22
first sub minute (last 10)64.0059.10
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.630.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.58—
league points63.0028.00
league rank10.0022.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.2070.40
possession avg (last 5)50.0043.00
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.140.17
season ppg1.570.70
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.209.20
skill v1-0.96-1.10
sot against avg (last 5)2.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.203.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.20
squad age29.8926.48
state index-0.39-0.38
sterile dominance v1-0.22-0.52
threat rate (last 10)0.200.24
threat rate (last 3)0.220.20
threat rate (last 5)0.210.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.40