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Cordoba 2–4 Huesca

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Perez Pallas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cordoba win39%2.47
Huesca win32%3.00
Draw28%3.42

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'⚽Álex Gallar · Huesca
36'⚽Gonzalo Melero · Huesca
38'🟨Jesús Valentín · Cordoba
43'🟨Gonzalo Melero · Huesca
53'🟨Edu Ramos · Cordoba
60'⚽Sergi Guardiola · Cordoba
61'⚽Cucho Hernández · Huesca
65'⚽ (pen)José Antonio Reyes · Cordoba
71'⚽ (pen)Cucho Hernández · Huesca
74'🟨Eneko Jauregi · Cordoba
83'🟨Álex Remiro · Huesca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
13Shots8
6On target7
3Corners5
17Fouls14
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCordobaHuesca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.500.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.650.66
cards avg (last 5)4.202.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Arcángel
coach days93.00308.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.13
corner diff avg (last 5)1.80-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.203.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.683.02
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.07
dominance (last 5)0.470.47
elo1431.471556.66
elo momentum (last 5)22.4014.05
eye test v1-0.29-0.19
eye trend v1-0.070.33
first sub minute (last 10)48.4059.90
form points (last 5)10.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.37
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v10.730.71
league points43.0073.00
league rank20.002.00
matches since blank14.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.8074.80
possession avg (last 5)48.8054.40
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration0.400.27
season ppg1.071.78
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.6013.20
skill v1-0.980.13
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.80
squad age27.3126.28
state index0.190.24
sterile dominance v1-0.370.13
threat rate (last 10)0.270.20
threat rate (last 3)0.220.26
threat rate (last 5)0.230.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.00