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Cultural Leonesa 2–1 Cordoba

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Eduardo Prieto Iglesias, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cultural Leonesa win46%2.10
Draw27%3.58
Cordoba win27%3.65

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'⚽Emiliano Buendía · Cultural Leonesa
45'🟨Alex Quintanilla · Cordoba
53'⚽Rodri · Cultural Leonesa
62'🟨Antonio Martinez Felipe · Cultural Leonesa
63'🟨Jesús Valentín · Cordoba
75'🟨Eneko Jauregi · Cordoba
88'⚽Sergi Guardiola · Cordoba
90'🟨Rodri · Cultural Leonesa
90'🟨Rodri · Cultural Leonesa
90'🟨Thierry Moutinho · Cultural Leonesa
90'🟥Rodri · Cultural Leonesa

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
7Shots8
4On target2
3Corners6
18Fouls14
4Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCultural LeonesaCordoba
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.49
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.20
box share (last 5)0.490.60
cards avg (last 5)4.004.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Reino de Leon
coach days728.0087.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.401.40
corners against avg (last 5)7.604.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.205.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.153.68
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.08
dominance (last 5)0.370.50
elo1432.661439.96
elo momentum (last 5)18.6924.32
eye test v1-0.54-0.10
eye trend v1-0.040.04
first sub minute (last 10)53.4044.70
form points (last 5)8.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.35
keeper form v10.590.72
league points46.0043.00
league rank17.0020.00
matches since blank3.0013.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4067.60
possession avg (last 5)48.4051.40
rest days7.008.79
scorer concentration0.210.39
season ppg1.151.10
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.601.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.6012.60
skill v1-0.12-0.82
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.905.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.20
squad age26.5125.90
state index-0.200.16
sterile dominance v10.10-0.43
threat rate (last 10)0.220.28
threat rate (last 3)0.240.27
threat rate (last 5)0.210.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.40