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Zaragoza 2–1 Almeria

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Ocon Arraiz, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win56%1.72
Draw26%3.76
Almeria win18%5.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

56'⚽Giorgi Papunashvili · Zaragoza
70'🟨Marco Motta · Almeria
80'🟨Aleix Febas · Zaragoza
81'🟨Joaquín Fernández · Almeria
84'🟨Alberto Zapater · Zaragoza
85'⚽Borja Iglesias · Zaragoza
90'⚽Pablo Caballero · Almeria

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots5
6On target3
6Corners4
9Fouls18
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaAlmeria
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.540.60
cards avg (last 5)2.002.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLa Romareda
coach days294.00416.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.04
corner diff avg (last 5)1.203.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.603.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.807.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.322.60
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.15
dominance (last 5)0.430.49
elo1511.001427.72
elo momentum (last 5)-21.04-27.80
eye test v1-0.16-0.58
eye trend v10.10-0.28
first sub minute (last 10)55.2056.90
form points (last 5)6.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.99
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v10.840.70
league points59.0045.00
league rank9.0018.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0072.80
possession avg (last 5)44.4050.00
rest days6.006.00
scorer concentration0.320.24
season ppg1.551.15
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.601.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.8012.40
skill v1-0.22-0.38
sot against avg (last 5)5.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.20
squad age27.4026.82
state index-0.18-1.00
sterile dominance v1-0.49-0.19
threat rate (last 10)0.270.26
threat rate (last 3)0.310.21
threat rate (last 5)0.270.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00