← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Varon Aceiton
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Numancia win | 56% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.69 |
| Lugo win | 18% | 5.39 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Roberto Fernández · Lugo |
| 49' | 🟨 | Marc Mateu · Numancia |
| 58' | 🟨 | Pere Milla · Numancia |
| 78' | ⚽ | Higinio Marín · Numancia |
| 85' | 🟨 | Iñigo Pérez · Numancia |
| 89' | ⚽ | Higinio Marín · Numancia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 3 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 12 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Numancia | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.40 |
| venue | Los Pajaritos |
| coach days | 1048.00 | 287.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1496.52 | 1439.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.13 | -30.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| league points | 60.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.60 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.54 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.25 | 27.72 |
| state index | 0.47 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |