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Cordoba 1–0 Lorca FC

← Segunda División 2017 · Sun, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Victor Areces Franco, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cordoba win65%1.50
Draw21%4.56
Lorca FC win14%7.04

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'🟨Alberto Noguera · Lorca FC
33'🟨— · Cordoba
35'🟨Carlos Peña · Lorca FC
37'🟨Miguel Loureiro · Cordoba
40'🟨Fran Cruz · Lorca FC
53'🟥Tomislav Gomelt · Lorca FC
71'🟨Edu Ramos · Cordoba
74'🟨Sergi Guardiola · Cordoba
77'⚽Juan Narváez · Cordoba
89'🟨Saša Jovanović · Cordoba

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
19Shots9
4On target4
6Corners5
14Fouls16
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCordobaLorca FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
box share (last 5)0.570.69
cards avg (last 5)2.802.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Arcángel
coach days66.00250.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.12
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.982.42
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.15
dominance (last 5)0.580.42
elo1409.071316.92
elo momentum (last 5)38.74-4.57
eye test v1-0.05-0.28
eye trend v1-0.100.72
first sub minute (last 10)45.5059.40
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.630.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.630.63
league points33.0023.00
league rank21.0022.00
matches since blank9.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.005.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.0068.60
possession avg (last 5)51.2041.00
rest days8.007.00
scorer concentration0.420.14
season ppg0.940.64
shot diff avg (last 5)4.00-3.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.4010.40
skill v1-0.79-1.43
sot against avg (last 5)2.804.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.402.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.00
squad age26.7425.89
state index0.13-0.90
sterile dominance v1-0.39-1.13
threat rate (last 10)0.270.26
threat rate (last 3)0.230.35
threat rate (last 5)0.250.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.20