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Barcelona B 0–1 Cultural Leonesa

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui Fernandez Orte, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Barcelona B win51%1.91
Draw27%3.53
Cultural Leonesa win22%4.46

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Emiliano Buendía · Cultural Leonesa
10'🟨Rodri · Cultural Leonesa
23'🟨David García · Cultural Leonesa
25'🟨Antonio Martinez Felipe · Cultural Leonesa
36'🟨Monchu · Barcelona B
39'🟨Antonio Martinez Felipe · Cultural Leonesa
39'🟥Antonio Martinez Felipe · Cultural Leonesa
43'🟨Ángel García · Cultural Leonesa
47'🟨Sergio Marcos · Cultural Leonesa
54'🟨Emiliano Buendía · Cultural Leonesa
88'🟨Marc Cardona · Barcelona B
90'🟨Jorge Palatsí Gallego · Cultural Leonesa

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
18Shots8
4On target3
12Corners1
19Fouls16
2Yellow cards8
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBarcelona BCultural Leonesa
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.510.52
cards avg (last 5)2.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMini Estadi
2.40
coach days6.00706.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.05
corner diff avg (last 5)5.00-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.405.20
corners for avg (last 5)8.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.031.90
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.10
dominance (last 5)0.510.49
elo1383.031407.23
elo momentum (last 5)-49.11-35.94
eye test v1-0.10-0.22
eye trend v1-0.070.09
first sub minute (last 10)56.4051.70
form points (last 5)2.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-2.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.95
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
keeper form v10.630.64
league points41.0039.00
league rank19.0020.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.001.00
matches since win7.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.0076.00
possession avg (last 5)60.8053.80
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration0.210.24
season ppg1.141.05
shot diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.4011.60
skill v11.520.21
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.00
squad age21.4126.38
state index-1.23-1.18
sterile dominance v11.220.38
threat rate (last 10)0.220.20
threat rate (last 3)0.220.21
threat rate (last 5)0.200.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.20