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Valladolid 1–0 Reus

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Perez Pallas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valladolid win58%1.68
Draw27%3.60
Reus win15%6.26

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Jaime Mata · Valladolid
53'🟨Kiko Olivas · Valladolid
59'🟨Kiko Olivas · Valladolid
59'🟥Kiko Olivas · Valladolid
72'🟨Pichu Atienza · Reus
80'🟨Juan Dominguez · Reus
86'🟨Vitor Silva · Reus
90'🟨Jaime Mata · Valladolid
90'🟨Vitor Silva · Reus
90'🟥Vitor Silva · Reus

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots13
4On target3
5Corners7
17Fouls10
3Yellow cards4
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValladolidReus
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.37
box share (last 5)0.630.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days273.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJosé Zorrilla
273.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.712.01
elo1489.231442.96
elo momentum (last 5)-5.09-1.33
eye test v10.14-0.15
eye trend v10.180.34
first sub minute (last 10)53.6061.80
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.201.15
keeper form v10.780.76
league points48.0041.00
league rank10.0015.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4077.80
possession avg (last 5)52.2050.80
rest days7.046.88
scorer concentration0.480.26
season ppg1.501.28
skill v10.140.19
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.00
state index0.02-0.35
sterile dominance v10.510.28
threat rate (last 10)0.190.21
threat rate (last 3)0.190.22
threat rate (last 5)0.190.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.80