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Valladolid 1–0 Reus

← Segunda División 2017 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Perez Pallas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valladolid win58%1.68
Draw27%3.60
Reus win15%6.26

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Jaime Mata · Valladolid
53'🟨Kiko Olivas · Valladolid
59'🟨Kiko Olivas · Valladolid
59'🟥Kiko Olivas · Valladolid
72'🟨Pichu Atienza · Reus
80'🟨Juan Dominguez · Reus
86'🟨Vitor Silva · Reus
90'🟨Jaime Mata · Valladolid
90'🟨Vitor Silva · Reus
90'🟥Vitor Silva · Reus

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots13
4On target3
5Corners7
17Fouls10
3Yellow cards4
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValladolidReus
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.630.56
cards avg (last 5)3.402.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJosé Zorrilla
coach days273.00273.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.404.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.203.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.711.85
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.09
dominance (last 5)0.420.51
elo1511.681477.56
elo momentum (last 5)-5.45-3.67
eye test v10.14-0.15
eye trend v10.180.34
first sub minute (last 10)53.6061.80
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.201.15
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.10
keeper form v10.780.76
league points55.0050.00
league rank8.0014.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4077.80
possession avg (last 5)52.2050.80
rest days6.966.96
scorer concentration0.480.26
season ppg1.571.43
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.000.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.2010.80
skill v10.140.19
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.00
squad age28.4927.04
state index0.05-0.16
sterile dominance v10.510.28
threat rate (last 10)0.190.21
threat rate (last 3)0.190.22
threat rate (last 5)0.190.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.80